Ports around the
United States, and many parts of the world, have been reporting a rebound in
volumes as economies began to recover from the shock of the pandemic and
governments took steps to support restroe activity.
According to new data from the largest retail trade
association, the National Retail Federation (NRF), and Hackett Associates, the
rebound in retail sales helped to drive U.S. imports to an all-time high this
summer. Contributing to the high volumes seen in the ports, was merchants’
efforts to replenish inventories and increase stock in advance of the holiday
retail season.
“After staying at home this spring, consumers are buying
again and retail supply chains are working overtime to keep up with demand,” said
NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold. “Nothing
about this year is predictable, but retailers are making sure their shelves and
warehouses are well-stocked for the holidays. They are also stocking up earlier
than usual because they know many consumers will be shopping early this year to
avoid crowds and shipping delays. Some holiday merchandise that normally
wouldn’t arrive until Halloween is already here.”
The surge in volumes has led to several challenges both for
the ports and carriers. Shipping lines
are struggling to find and reposition empty containers. At the same time, ports
are reporting congestion issues impacting shipping schedules and slowing the
movement of goods out of the terminals.
According to the NRF’s monthly Global Port Tracker report,
the U.S. primary ports saw a 9.7 percent monthly increase in volume in August
handled 2.1 million TEUs. That also represents an eight percent year-over-year
increase. It was the highest number of containers imported in a single month
since the NRF began tracking imports in 2002, beating 2.04 million TEU seen in
October 2018 as shippers rushed to beat a scheduled tariff increase.
Expectations for September projected it could become the
second-highest month on record. The report estimates a 10.9 percent increase
year-over-year to over 2 million TEUs arriving at the largest U.S. ports in
September.
Retailer imports traditionally peak during the summer and
early fall in advance of holiday sales. Typically, the levels begin to decline,
and as such the Global Port Tracker is forecasting a 1.1 percent decline
year-over-year for October to 1.86 million TEUs. Shipping industry analysts
have also pointed to the rush to get goods out of China before the Golden Week
holidays during the first week of October when most businesses close across
China.
Even with the expected decline in October, they are
forecasting 7.96 million TEUs during the peak season between July and October.
With retailers rushing to import merchandise for the holiday selling season,
they note that three-quarters of the estimated total, or more than six million
TEUs, has already arrived at the ports. The total peak season imports are
expected to exceed the record of 7.7 million TEUs imported in 2018.
“The U.S. economy is beating forecasts with consumption up
and imports setting new records,” said Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett.
“Retail sales are a big part of consumer spending, so one would expect to see
an increase when the economy improves and consumers are confident. But less
than six months after the biggest decreases on record this spring, retail sales
have bounced back to pre-crisis levels.”
For the remainder of 2020, the Port Tracker predicts a
decline in monthly imports of over five percent in November and as much as 11
percent in December. The total of all of 2020 is projected at 20.5 million
TEUs, down nearly five percent year-over-year, and the lowest annual total in
three years.
The Port Tracker also expects steep declines in January 2021
while import levels might begin to level off in February. This coincides with
other container industry analysts who have projected that the surge in volumes
might not be sustainable.
The NRF’s Global Port Tracker provides historical data and
forecasts for the U.S.’s largest and most active ports. This includes Los
Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle, and Tacoma on the West Coast; New
York/New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades,
Miami, and Jacksonville on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast.