Echoing Brexit warnings dating back to 2017, the UK
government has issued a new "reasonable worst case scenario" for the
transportation impact of completing the UK's exit from Europe without a free
trade agreement. The UK formally left the EU in January, but its trade is still
covered by a status-quo transition period until December 31. After that point,
if Britain and Brussels do not reach an accord for a post-transition trade
deal, new border controls "could lead to maximum queues of 7,000 port-bound
trucks in Kent and associated maximum delays of up to two days," the
government warned.
The analysis assumes that on the short channel crossings via
Dover and the Eurotunnel - which handle a substantial share of British trade
with continental Europe - about 30-50 percent of export-bound trucks may not be
"border ready." The challenges of turning away these non-ready trucks
"could reduce the flow rate to 60-80 percent of normal levels,"
creating extended delays for freight. Since the delayed trucks will be stuck
waiting to leave Britain, they will not be available to pick up EU goods on the
other side for the return trip, so trade will likely be disrupted in both
directions.
"We would expect sustained disruption to worsen over
the first two weeks as freight demand builds," the government assessed.
"There could be a significant drop in disruption and improvement in flow
capacity within the first three months as fewer unready [trucks] arrive at the
border."
The British Ports Association (BPA), which counts the UK's
main ro/ro ports among its membership, said Wednesday that it is essential to
ensure that shippers and truckers are aware of the potential for new border
requirements on January 1.
"Ports are working to ensure infrastructure is ready
but [there] is still a lot to do. In particular . . . policy makers need to
agree in respect of specifications for infrastructure," said BPA Chief
Executive Richard Ballantyne. "We will now be looking at ways to support
the government’s drive to communicate the new requirements to the wider freight
and logistics industry to avoid many of the scenarios given in the analysis
from arising."
With the EU exit finally approaching, the BPA has also
called for government funding to "future-proof" the sector as part of
Maritime UK's proposal for a $1.3 billion maritime decarbonization program. The
multi-year fund would "support the specific and significant challenges to
meet the sector's decarbonization and environmental commitments."
BPA also called for adequate resources for the government
itself. "The experience of many ports in all jurisdictions in recent years
is one of increasing costs for licensing and planning. In England, for example,
the Marine Management Organisation (MMO) now charge more than most commercial
consultants per hour for their time – yet their service is not a choice, it is
a condition for maintenance and development activity. We would like to see
regulators properly resourced by government," wrote Mark Simmonds, the
head of policy for BPA.