In a new study, class society DNV GL has examined the future
fuels landscape to look at the likeliest ways for shipping to cut its carbon
output. The path is not easy: only 10 percent of the current orderbook will run
on alternative fuel when delivered, and the proportion would have to rise
sharply to meet IMO's target for a 50 percent cut by midcentury.
In the study, DNV GL's team looked at nearly a dozen
different fuel types and examined them in the context of 30 hypothetical market
and regulatory scenarios. The modeling shows a wide variation in potential
outcomes by midcentury, based on changes in underlying assumptions - for
example, an IMO-led 50 percent carbon reduction by 2050 versus a much more
ambitious full decarbonization by 2040.
The key finding from this modeling study: ammonia and
methanol appear to be the two dominant future fuels for deep sea shipping, and
the choice between them depends upon input price. If sustainable electricity is
less expensive, then e-ammonia (ammonia synthesized from nitrogen and hydrogen
in an electrochemical process) makes the most sense; if biomass is less
expensive, then bio-methanol comes out ahead. Both products are liquid fuels
and are already widely carried as cargoes, making them relatively suitable for
retrofit (though ammonia has its own special handling considerations). Methanol
can be burned in a suitably-adapted marine diesel engine, and research on
ammonia as a diesel-cycle fuel is under way.
In all scenarios, the study calls for supportive financing,
cross-industry cooperation, risk-sharing among stakeholders and regulatory
incentives in order to facilitate uptake.
For shipowners making investment plans today, DNV GL argues
that dual-fuel LNG makes the most sense, as it reduces emissions and fuel cost
in the near term while maintaining some flexibility for the future. The study
suggests that beyond conventional LNG sources, e-LNG and bio-LNG are among the
most promising transition fuels while the market is shifting to liquid
low/no-carbon options.