For a week the world was gripped by the extraordinary sight
of a massive container ship that had run aground in the Suez Canal in Egypt.
The Ever Given is 400 meters long (1,312 feet) and weighs 200,000 tonnes, with
a maximum capacity of 20,000 containers. It was carrying 18,300 containers when
it became wedged in the canal, blocking all shipping traffic. Efforts to free
it finally paid off when it was partially dislodged in the early hours of
Monday, March 29. The Conversation's Adejuwon Soyinka asked maritime security
expert Dirk Siebels to unpack lessons learned from the incident.
What maritime lessons can be learned from this incident?
Choke points: The shipping industry provides an extremely
efficient link to ensure just-in-time deliveries. This link, however, is
largely invisible, underlined by the time it took most countries to classify seafarers
as key workers during the COVID-19 pandemic.
When choke points are blocked, trade doesn’t necessarily
come to a standstill. Under normal circumstances, it is extremely cheap to
transport all types of cargo over long distances on ships. Freight rates are
barely noticeable in the price of most goods, so higher freight rates are
unlikely to be a significant issue for economies as a whole. Nevertheless, the
implications of a blockage as we’ve seen in the Suez Canal will have been felt
in many sectors. For example, refineries need crude oil, factories need raw
materials, shops need goods to sell.
Security threats: These are easy to exaggerate, but
complicated to understand. Concerns about additional piracy threats on the
route around Africa are, in my view exaggerated. In addition, there have been
alarming headlines about ships waiting at the southern end of the Suez Canal,
describing them as “sitting ducks” in a volatile region.
While there are certain threats for operations in the Red
Sea, these have not changed overnight. Ships always have to wait in the area as
Suez Canal transits are conducted in convoys. Moreover, the threat level is the
same for all ships but the resulting risk is different for individual vessels,
depending on factors such as ship type, cargo or even the owner’s nationality.
Situational awareness is therefore important to ensure
appropriate preparations and to avoid unwarranted alarmism.
Security and safety: These threats should receive similar
attention. Potential security threats are often highlighted as worst-case
scenarios, namely terrorist attacks which could cause high levels of economic
disruption. These have often been identified as a particular threat for choke
points such as the Suez Canal. Safety threats, on the other hand, are not as
headline-grabbing. Accidents are much more likely to occur but are much less
discussed.
In many cases, however, the actual implications of safety and
security incidents are very similar. Countermeasures that are designed to
increase resilience should therefore receive more attention. Better awareness
of all types of threats is vital in this area as well because safety threats
are largely static while security threats are much more dynamic.
Were there any maritime security implications from the
incident?
This was a rare accident that has highlighted how much the
world’s economy relies on shipping. This has been the case for many years. But
the global shipping industry is almost invisible most of the time.
While the Ever Given’s grounding was not a security-related
incident, the critical nature of certain choke points around the world has been
discussed for many years.
These narrow channels – including man-made ones like the
Suez Canal, but also natural ones like the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf
and the Gulf of Oman or the Strait of Malacca between the Malay Peninsula and
the Indonesian island of Sumatra – are part of the most important global sea
routes. When merchant ships can no longer navigate through such a choke point,
it may lead to supply delays and higher freight rates. These effects are
already visible in the tanker market.
For container ships, the impact could exacerbate an already
chaotic situation in the wake of COVID 19-related disruptions of
long-established trading patterns.
Overall, direct implications on maritime security are
unlikely. The commercial implications for the shipping industry – and, by
extension, for global trade – are already significant and the ripple effects
will be felt in many sectors beyond shipping.
What does the incident tell us about other sea routes around
Africa?
The only alternative to a transit through the Suez Canal is
the much longer passage around the African continent. Piracy in particular has
been a significant concern for operators of merchant ships in recent years,
first off the Somali coastline and more recently in the Gulf of Guinea.
Some shipping companies have already voiced concerns over
piracy threats on the alternative route, even prompting inquiries to the US
Navy. One of the largest industry organizations, BIMCO, recently published a
related security guidance.
In recent years shipping industry associations as well as
international navies have often pointed out that Somalia-based piracy has
merely been suppressed, not defeated. In December, the European Union’s naval
mission in the western Indian Ocean was extended until 31 December 2022.
At the same time, it should be noted that the threat of
piracy for a transit through the Gulf of Aden towards the Suez Canal is not
significantly different from a voyage through the Indian Ocean towards South
Africa. After passing the Cape of Good Hope, a ship with a destination in
Europe is very likely to steam on a straight course and pass between Senegal
and Cabo Verde. Any such transit will not be affected by the piracy threat in
West Africa, which is significant in the inner Gulf of Guinea, but limited to
an area around 250 nautical miles from the Nigerian coastline. Taking the
shortest route around Africa means that ships will be almost 1,000 nautical
miles away from Nigeria.
Adejuwon Soyinka is The Conversation's regional editor for
West Africa.
Dirk Siebels is a maritime security expert and a former
officer in the German Navy. He holds a PhD in maritime security from the
University of Greenwich.